Where to next for Pence?
The Indy Star’s Russ Pulliam speculates about Republican Study Committee Chairman Mike Pence’s future in the House of Represenatives today in this column. Pulliam points out that Pence’s star will certainly rise should the GOP lose control of the lower chamber after the midterm elections.
If Republicans lose the House, Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., is not likely to continue as minority leader.
Pence would be an obvious candidate for top leadership in several respects.
“Mike Pence’s colleagues in the GOP caucus speak highly of him. He’s seen as a principled conservative who might help to restore some direction to a congressional party that has had a tough year,” says Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “Pence has impressed people especially on fiscal matters, and he’s got his work cut out for him. The GOP under President Bush has added trillions to the national debt, and the party has probably destroyed its image of fiscal conservatism for a generation.”
As chairman of the Republican Study Committee, Pence has represented the growing dominant conservative wing of the party. Yet he does so in an upbeat manner. “I’m a conservative,” he likes to say, “but I’m not in a bad mood about it.”
His cheerful manner could give him an inside track in jockeying for leadership. It’s easy to make enemies in the sharp-elbow world of Congress. Pence inspires some jealousy among his colleagues because he receives so much media attention. But his congenial personal manner makes it hard for fellow Republicans, or even some Democrats, to dislike him intensely.
Petty jealousy should play no role in the leadership elections slated for November 15th. Regardless of the outcome of the midterm elections, I think it has become abundantly clear that Republicans in Congress are in dire need of strong, principled leadership that can wipe the slate clean.
Pence is one of a handful of RSC members who could help the GOP leadership team regain its bearings. The Party would do well to promote a man like Pence. But, as Pullium notes, it is not clear whether or not he would take it:
Though qualified to move up, Pence is likely to weigh other options.
He may be more interested in a U.S. Senate seat from Indiana instead of House leadership. Sen. Richard Lugar is running for a record-setting sixth term, but he could move into a Cabinet position under, for example, a President John McCain. Or Sen. Evan Bayh, who is running for president, could wind up at least in the vice presidency.
If Republicans lose the House, a minority leadership position could be a frustrating place for Pence to watch the final two years of a Bush administration. Or it could lead to the influential Speaker’s post if the Republicans would take back the House in 2008.
I suspect Pence would be unlikely to turn down a leadership slot if his colleauges agressively courted him. But therein lies the uncertainty.