National Intelligence Estimate: what to conclude
Some are touting the recent NIE as a reason to leave Iraq. Not so says Heritage Foundation colleague Peter Brookes:
So the declassified NIE is out for the entire world to see. In it, the intelligence community concludes that the Iraq conflict has become a “cause celebre” (perhaps best translated from French into English–in this case–as a rallying cry) for jihadists.I don’t think there is any surprise there.
Of course, the jihadists are going to use any excuse to promote their evil agenda. They’ve use/used the Israel-Palestinian conflict, U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia, Islam’s eviction from southern Spain in the Middle Ages, the Crusades and a whole host of other reasons to advance their deadly cause.
But even more striking was the sentence that followed the now celebrated “cause celebre” sentence in the NIE document: “Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.”
So, basically, the NIE is saying that victory in Iraq would be a victory in the fight against extremism. A pretty important judgment…