Has the tide changed?
This article certainly reflects inside the beltway buzz to a degree:
There has been a palpable shift in the mood in Washington in recent weeks. No longer are insiders in both parties sharing predictions of a Democratic rout of Republicans.
Some on both sides had expected an election debacle for the Republicans, driven by the Iraq war, high gas prices and the perception that a Republican-led Washington can neither shoot nor spend straight.
Now those perceptions have changed.
A 58 percent majority of Democratic insiders polled by National Journal, as well as an overwhelming 94 percent of Republican insiders, say the Republican National Committee is doing a better job for November than the Democratic National Committee.
Three weeks past the traditional Labor Day kickoff of campaign season, many Republicans are expressing greater optimism for their party’s prospects on Election Day, now just six weeks away.
But things change quickly.
We are coming off a good streatch for Republicans. Chavez and Ahmadinejad recently reminded the world what real lunacy looks like at the United Nations, Islamo-fascists showed their true colors by reacting violently to the Pope’s comments, Bill Clinton erupted in rage when confronted with the shortcomings of his Administration, gas prices are falling, the economy is plodding along and President Bush’s emphasis on national security has taken hold with many voters.
Republicans were fortunate this week to have the press largely ignore a story about a CIA report concluding that the Iraq war has made the United States more susceptible to terrorism. Regardless of the merits of the report, this is usually the type of story the press would run ad nauseum — but they didn’t, as Bill Clinton’s rage sucked the air out of everything.
A couple week’s of bad press and refocus on Iraq (especially if things take a turn for the worse) could tamp down the newfound GOP optimism.