Election prognastications
The Editor at Influence Peddler describes an election prediction from a “well known, non-partisan political analyst” that spells trouble for Republicans:
First the non-partisan: he was not encouraging (if you’re a Republican). He said that it’s looking likely that the Democrats will retake the House. He noted similarities to 1994, and said that with Bush’s popularity extremely low and with Bush’s poll numbers appearing to be largely ‘frozen,’ (an assertion I don’t really agree with), it’s hard for the GOP to get much traction. This analyst said that for some months, ‘macro’ polls showed the GOP in big trouble, but that the dynamics of individual races did not seem to follow. He said that as time has gone on however, those races have materialized into ones that the Democrats are likely to win. He also noted that the GOP always took solace in the fact that while the GOP overall was unpopular, most voters still supported their own GOP incumbent. That has changed as well he said, so that now polls show that people are no longer so supportive of their own Congressman. Lastly, he said, polls show that Democratic voters are more highly motivated than their GOP counterparts.
He concluded by saying that this year looks like a big wave - on the order of 15-20 seats. But he added that in such years, the wave usually develops in such a way that about 5 more incumbents get beaten who were thought completely safe. So his guess is that unless something big happens to change the dynamic, the GOP will lose the House with a few seats to spare.
It seems to me that this observation is rapidly becoming the DC conventional wisdom amongst non party-employed political watchers. That’s not to say that the NRCC, whose contrary take on the situation is described by the Influence Peddler later in the post, will not be proved correct (miracles do occur), it is just to say that the chattering classes inside the beltway appear to be settling on this assumed outcome.
UPDATE: Speaking of the chattering classes, the significance of this trend on K Street should not be overlooked:
Washington lobbying firms, trade associations and corporate offices are moving to hire more well-connected Democrats in response to rising prospects that the opposition party will wrest control of at least one chamber of Congress from Republicans in the November elections.
In what lobbyists are calling a harbinger of possible upheaval on Capitol Hill, many who make a living influencing government have gone from mostly shunning Democrats to aggressively recruiting them as lobbyists over the past six months or so.
…Lobbying managers have for years tended to hire Republicans because both Congress and the White House are controlled by the GOP, and access to officials at both places is lobbying’s stock in trade. But, in recent months, many of Washington’s top lobbyists said in interviews that their decision-making has been altered by an emerging consensus among election experts that the Democrats will boost their numbers in the House and the Senate in the midterm elections Nov. 7 and have a strong shot of winning a majority in the House.