Governing by Popular Opinion
By combining a minimum wage increase with estate tax provisions, the House coupled two politically popular ideas. Americans favor raising the minimum wage, and they don’t like the estate tax.
In their study of what the public knows about economic policy, economists Alan Blinder and Alan Krueger found that 75 percent of those surveyed favored an increase in the minimum wage. In their survey, 60 percent of self-identified conservatives favored an increase in the wage.
The Tax Foundation does an annual survey of American attitiudes toward various tax issues. This year’s survey found (again) that the federal estate tax is the least fair federal tax. Moreover, 68 percent of those surveyed favored completely eliminating the estate tax.
The House’s action on the minimum wage came after a concerted effort by Democrats to keep bringing up the issue whenever they could. Indeed, the minimum wage highlights the various Democratic agenda that have been rolled out recently. Republicans finally bowed to the pressure because, we were told, Republican moderates needed a minimum wage increase to help win in November.
Democrats, however, have not bowed to Republican pressure to repeal the estate tax even though over two-thirds of the public supports full repeal. You don’t hear much chatter that Democrats are going to lose in November because they have successfully blocked full repeal of the estate tax. Indeed, CQ has reported that changes to the estate tax has poisoned the minimum wage hike legislation for Senate Democrats.
The wrangling over the minimum wage suggests a dynamic that is not particularly helpful. Republicans are doing what is politically popular even if they disagree with the policy. Democrats are able do what is politically unpopular when doing the politically popular thing violates their beliefs. Why do Republicans feel the need to accept something (e.g. a minimum wage hike) that they generally oppose in order to appease voters who, by and large, favor a wage hike? The American public wants to eliminate the estate tax, but the Democrats don’t, so they vote against legislation that would tweak or kill it. Democratic opposition to something that is politically popular has not, as far as I can tell, damaged Democrats. They surely aren’t going to lose elections over it.
I wonder what would happen if Republicans had done something that was politically unpopular and voted against a minimum wage hike. A lot of conservatives would be happy.
If Republicans feel the need to pander to the general public, one wishes that they would do it in a way that would not have the harmful effects of a minimum wage hike. How about some legislation honoring this year’s American Idol finalists? (There was a resolution last year by the way.) Or a Sense of Congress expressing shock and disappointment over recent doping scandals.
The last minimum wage increases happened in 1996 and 1997 when Newt and Dick Armey were running the show in the House, so it seems to be a recurring issue for Republicans. And, the increase obviously didn’t seem to help them in 1998. Maybe governing by popular opinion is not the answer.